Labor Market Transitions in Peru

Traditional labor market analysis based solely on the net unemployment rate fails to explain the apparent paradox between a relatively moderate unemployment rate in Peru (around 10%, with a weak sensibility to wide macroeconomic fluctuations), and the fact that unemployment is one of the major issues in Peru. One possible explanation is that this static indicator of cross section net unemployment balance is compatible with high flows in and out of employment states. To address these issues we needed to conduct a dynamic analysis using panel data. Using the Peruvian national household survey (ENAHO), we constructed a panel of working age individuals at the national level for the period 1997-1999. Like previous work in developing countries, we found that there is an important degree of job mobility in Peru. We also found that most of the transitions occur between employment and inactivity instead of between employment and unemployment. We also showed that the rate of permanent unemployment is very low so that unemployment would be essentially a frictional phenomenon. Further, considering the different transition states, we elaborated an unconditional transition profile, including individual and household characteristics, like gender, age and education levels for example, associated with each transition status. Finally, after examining these labor market transitions and the possible sample selection bias, we estimated a multinomial logit model. This model allowed us to appreciate the (conditional) incidence of individual and household characteristics as well as the effects of different shocks on the labor transition states.

Transit-Oriented Development and Equity in Latino Neighborhoods: A Comparative Case Study of MacArthur Park (Los Angeles) and Fruitvale (Oakland)

Transit-oriented development (TOD) projects in low-income neighborhoods have the potential to provide needed transportation access to a segment of the population that stands to benefit significantly from these large-scale transit infrastructure projects. This research project reveals that large-scale TOD projects have the potential of leading to neighborhood revitalization and equitable outcomes in low-income Latino communities. But these positive outcomes depend on both the process and context of these particular neighborhoods, and how transportation planners incorporate the various forms of political, financial and cultural capital that exist in these communities into the planning and implementation process of TOD projects. This comparative case study analyzed the Fruitvale Transit Village in Oakland and the MacArthur Park METRO TOD in Los Angeles. We uncovered how TOD projects in Latino neighborhoods have the potential to improve access to regional transportation systems, increasing the number of affordable housing units, supporting local and diverse Latino retail businesses, and building upon existing social services. We conclude that TODs can help serve as catalysts for revitalization in low-income neighborhoods by paying attention to and building upon endogenous forms of cultural, political, financial and built capital that exist in these neighborhoods, and encouraging more bottom-up participatory forms of decision-making and activism in neighborhoods